The prospects of El Niño have receded in the past two weeks, according to Indian and foreign weather scientists, easing concerns that the Pacific Ocean phenomenon will disrupt the June-September monsoon, which sustains most of India’s agriculture. Some forecasting models indicate that El Niño will not develop at all while others say it will be weak. “The probability of El Niño occurrence is decreasing from month to month. There is uncertainty about its impact on the Indian monsoon, with positive IOD also developing over the Indian Ocean,” said KJ Ramesh, director-general, India Meteorological Department. IOD or Indian Ocean Dipole relates to temperature changes in the Indian Ocean. The widely respected Australian weather office, which closely tracks the phenomenon, said some climate models have lowered the likelihood of El Niño occurring over the past month. “Five of eight models indicate that sea surface temperatures will exceed El Niño thresholds during the second half of 2017; a reduction of two models (in two weeks),” it said in its latest assessment on Wednesday. El Niño is associated with the warming of parts of the Pacific Ocean, releasing heat and moisture that affect the flow of winds across the globe. This causes weak rainfall in India and heavy showers and storms in some parts of the world. The South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF), a grouping of regional meteorologists associated with the World Meteorological Organisation, forecast a normal monsoon for most of South Asia and said there was considerable uncertainty about El Niño.