New Delhi: The overall rainfall deficit in the current monsoon season has increased to 5% and may widen further, prompting the government’s weather forecaster to admit that it got its prediction of surplus rain wrong.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) attributed the lower-than-forecast rainfall to the absence of La Nina, an ocean-cooling weather phenomenon that causes heavy rain in India.
The rainfall deficit in September is 22% so far. It was 9% in August.
Barring central India, all other parts are facing a rainfall deficit in the June-September rainy season, according to IMD. North-west India is facing a deficit of 2%. South peninsula, east and north-east India have reported a deficit of 11% and 13%, respectively.
In June, IMD forecast that seasonal rainfall is likely to be above normal at around 106% of the 50-year average. But D.S. Pai, its head of long-range forecasting, told Reuters on Wednesday that he now expects a seasonal deficit.
“Our forecast of a surplus rainfall has gone wrong,” Pai was quoted as saying.
IMD got its forecast wrong as it expected that the El Nino weather phenomenon would transform into La Nina this year, but that did not happen. Instead, El Nino, associated with droughts in India, has been replaced by a neutral phase which will get converted into a weak La Nina in October and November.
According to Bishwajit Mukhopadhyay, additional director general of meteorology at IMD’s Pune Climate Sevices Division, “La Nina is not the sole indicator of good monsoon; it is a major parameter but not the only one. There are many years in history when India received above-normal rainfall in the absence of La Nina.”
“Absence of La Nina and Negative Indian Ocean Dipole during this south-west monsoon are the main causes for India facing a deficit,” said Mahesh Palawat, chief meteorologist at private weather forecaster Skymet.
IMD has, however, forecast some good showers in the coming week even though the withdrawal of the monsoon has started from the northwestern parts of India. Parts of north-east and east India will receive above-normal rainfall till 23 and 28 September, respectively. For the south peninsula, rainfall activity will increase from 24 September.
Crop production in most parts of the country will not be hurt because of the deficit rainfall. “As on today, there is no worry about the crop production in most parts of the country because of the spatial and temporal rainfall,” said N. Chattopadhyay, deputy director general at IMD’s agricultural meteorology division.
Sowing of kharif (monsoon) crops has risen this year as compared to last year. Data with the agriculture ministry shows that 105.4 million hectares have been planted under different kharif crops so far, an increase of 4.16% from the area sown by this time last year.
Sowing of pulses, a key pressure point in retail inflation, saw an almost 30% increase this year to 14.4 million hectares. Other crops such as rice, coarse cereals and oilseeds have also seen an increase in their sowing area, with sugarcane and cotton being the exceptions