Analysts attributed the slide of 6.3% largely to local factors such as “bitterness and disinterest among farmers following low cane produce along with sudden rise in summer temperature in the state’s sugarcane belt”.According to farmers, most sugar mills have finished cane-crushing almost a month before the usual time that led to early sowing of wheat. When elections began, farmers were already in the fields for harvest and they showed a general lack of interest, analysts pointed out.

 

‘Farmers bitter, led to plunge in voting % in sugarcane belt’

Moreover, this year, sugarcane developed red rot disease causing an almost 11% drop in yield that advanced the process of harvest and wheat sowing, creating “bitterness” within the agrarian community. Another possible reason, poll experts believe, was the “absence of a polarised environment that was witnessed in previous elections”.

 

KK Sharma, associate professor at Chaudhary Charan Singh University, said, “In most seats, there was no minority candidate fielded by the main opposition party that often leads to a bitter contest and rhetoric at both ends. Besides, BJP’s mega electoral campaign of ‘Ab ki baar, 400 paar’ could be fuelling over-confidence among traditional BJP supporters on the one hand, and creating a sense of despair among non-BJP voters on the other thereby dissuading both camps from coming out to vote.”

 

As a case in point, analysts said that polarisation could have led to a higher vote percentage in Saharanpur -- a maximum of 65.9% among all eight western Uttar Pradesh seats. This particular seat witnessed a keenly-fought contest between BJP’s Raghav Lakhanpal and Congress candidate Imran Masood, representing INDIA bloc. BSP fielded Majid Ali. While in Rampur, with no loyalist of SP veteran Azam Khan in the poll fray and general apathy against the party for parachuting a candidate from Delhi, could have kept people away from polling booths. Rampur registered the lowest voter turnout of 54.7% in phase one in UP.

 

In 2019, it was 63.1%. Among assembly segments in Rampur district, voter turnout in Azam’s stronghold -- Rampur Sadar -- was a dismal 44.3%. Notably, Saharanpur witnessed 70.7% turnout five years ago. While other constituencies such as Kairana recorded 61.1% in 2024, down from 67.4% in 2019; Muzaffarnagar 59.2% (in 2024) from 68.2% in 2019; Bijnor 58.2% from 66% in 2019; Nagina 59.4% from 63.5% in 2019; Moradabad 60.6% down from 65.4% in 2019; and Pilibhit 61.9% in 2024 down from 67.2% in 2019 elections.