Jatin Singh, Founder and CEO of Skymetweather.com has a positive outlook for the 2024 monsoon season in India. Skymet, a leading weather forecasting agency, is calling for a normal monsoon, citing limited impact from El Nino this year.

El Nino is a climatic phenomenon characterised by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, which can disrupt global weather patterns. In India, it often leads to weaker monsoons, adversely affecting agriculture by reducing rainfall essential for crops.

“There is a better chance of a normal and above normal and excess than below normal for sure. There is a very low chance of a below normal or drought this year,” he said.

Singh said the current indicators suggest a favorable scenario for the upcoming monsoon. “The Pacific is moving from an El Nino towards neutral and then towards La Nina. Plus, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also supportive and positive,” he stated.

This neutral-to-positive shift is expected to bring about a normal monsoon season, a relief for many who depend on the rains for agriculture and water supply.

Singh discussed Skymet’s approach to forecasting, which combines long-range and short-range predictions, computing, and statistics, honed through years of experience. He acknowledged past challenges in accurately predicting month-to-month variations within the monsoon season but expressed confidence in this year’s forecast.

Skymet plans to release its mid-April update for a more detailed analysis. For now, the preliminary forecast brings good news to various sectors, particularly agriculture, which heavily relies on monsoon patterns.