Northern Gujarat and contiguous south-west Rajasthan are the only geographical regions left to be covered by the monsoon as a low-pressure area parked over South Bihar spearheaded seasonal rains in the north of the country.
In fact, the India Met Department said on Monday that this ‘low’ could intensify a round, which points to the overall strength of the monsoon over the northern half of the country.
Exceptional case
Under normal conditions, low-pressure areas gain incremental strength while based over the seawaters. It is only under exceptional circumstances, for instance a vigorous monsoon that they intensify over land.
The monsoon had reached Delhi on July 2, only two days after its normal schedule. Given the current expansive phase, it may cover the rest of the landscape well before the July-15 normal.
The only worrisome feature is the continued languid performance of the Arabian Sea arm of the monsoon. As has happened a few times earlier during this season, this arm has come stuck over the Dwarka-Surendernagar in Gujarat while the Bay of Bengal arm has pushed in to Jodhpur-Phalodi in Rajasthan.
It is only a small arc that separates Dwarka-Surendernagar and Jodhpur-Phalodi that is left to be covered by the monsoon.
Pacific typhoon
According to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the existing ‘low’ would move south-southwest towards Madhya Pradesh and would be active for another three days.
The agency suspects that it could intensify another round, and bring pouring rain all over Central India and Gujarat as it keep moving in a more or less westwardly direction.
During this phase, the Indian monsoon system would have also to contend with a typhoon (cyclone) taking shape in North-west Pacific to the south-east of China.
Since the same monsoon flows go to feed the ‘low’ over India and the typhoon in the Pacific, the latter one, thanks to its sheer strength, could take away some of the flows that would have otherwise been headed towards India.
Net result is that the Bay of Bengal could briefly slump into inactivity and the next ‘low’ may take longer than expected to materialise. The Arabian Sea would briefly take over the baton from the Bay, heralding another wet phase to Konkan-Mumbai-South Gujarat.
Heavy rain
According to the US Climate Prediction Centre, July 3-9 would witness heavy to very showers across Central India and West India including over south Bihar, Jharkhand, south Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, south Gujarat, Konkan-Mumbai and coastal Karnataka.
Heavy rain is also indicated for east Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, and the North-Eastern States. During this phase, the monsoon would have extended its cover over the whole country.
The week that follows (July 10-16) will see the West Coast receiving good showers while the monsoon would continue to be active over North India – over a swathe of region from Odisha, Chhattisgarh, east Madhya Pradesh, east Rajasthan, west Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab and north Rajasthan.