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Rainfall to be heavy in July: Study on El Nino

Date:	28 Jun 2016

Source:	The Economic Times

Reporter:	Jayashree Bhosale

News ID:	5719

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PUNE: A study on El Nino weather phenomenon has backed the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) assessment that monsoon will shrug off the initial weakness and delay to deliver much heavier rainfall in July. Scientists of the Pune-based Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology analysed monsoon rainfall data following El Nino events of the past 142 years before coming to the conclusion.

The study showed that when an El Nino decays in June, rains in June are deficient but good between July and September. However, the projection of good rain is for the country as a whole. The IMD will issue its forecast for July in the first week of the month.

"The analysis from the 142 years of past data reveals that the decaying phase of El Nino has strong impact on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall," said C Gnanaseelan, who authored the study with six other scientists. "Early El Nino decay (decay in spring or by April-May) years witness good rainfall over India right through June to September." In general, the monsoon rainfall in India is near normal or excess during the El Nino decay phase, according to the study.

"Mid summer decay (June-September) years witness less than normal rainfall in June but above average rainfall in July and August and very good rainfall in September," Gnanaseelan said. "2016 could be classified as mid-summer decay case considering the El Nino decay and the high possibility of developing a La Nina, and so, good rainfall is most likely from July onwards."

The government also expects rainfall to increase from July. "We expect good monsoon in July, August and September," said M Rajeevan, secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences. "June rainfall was not so good due to the hanging over of El Nino. Now, La Nina is coming up."

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