Sugar prices on Thursday posted moderate losses after India's Food Secretary said his country is not likely to face any shortage of sugar in the domestic market, which opens up the possibility it may resume sugar exports.  Indian Food Secretary Chopra said India's sugar reserves as of Oct 1 totaled 5.7 MMT, enough to meet demand for 2-1/2 months, and that it will decide whether to allow sugar exports after assessing its cane production.

 

 

Over the past month, sugar prices have risen sharply, with NY sugar on Sep 19 posting a 12-year nearest-futures high and London sugar on Sep 14 posting a 12-year high, on concern about smaller global sugar production.  On Sep 5, Alvean, the world's largest sugar trader, said it expects a 2023/24 global sugar deficit of -5.4 MMT, the sixth year of shortages, as India may curb sugar exports and Thailand farmers plant more profitable cassava instead of sugarcane.

 

Sugar has support from speculation that India might soon announce export restrictions on its sugar supplies.  On Aug 23, Reuters reported that India is considering banning its sugar mills from exporting sugar in the 2023/24 season beginning in October as a lack of monsoon rain reduced the country's sugar crop.  India's Weather Department said this year's monsoon rain (Jun-Sep) was -6% below average, the poorest monsoon rainfall in 5 years.  India's food ministry said it will make a final decision about sugar exports for 2023/24 when actual estimates of total production are available.   India allowed mills to export only 6.1 MMT of sugar during the current 2022/23 season to Sep 30 after letting them export a record 11.1 MMT last season.  India's Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) on Aug 2 forecast that India's 2023/24 sugar production would decline -3.4% y/y to 31.68 MMT.