NEW DELHI: Upgrading its outlook for this year's monsoon, private forecaster Skymet on Wednesday said rains are expected to be 'above normal' at 109 per cent of the long period average (LPA), almost reaching 'excess' levels.

This is four percentage points higher than Skymet's first monsoon prediction made on April 11, when the forecaster said rains were expected to be 105 per cent of LPA. The forecast has a 4 per cent margin of error.

India Meteorological Department, the country's official monsoon forecaster, has predicted 106 per cent rains. The department is expected to issue an updated forecast in the first week of June. "The last prediction was based on data from March. In our updated forecast, we have looked at data till the beginning of May and it's showing more favourable conditions, particularly the increased possibility of La Nina forming later this year," said G P Sharma, VP meteorology, Skymet.

Average rainfall of 887mm across the country from June to September is considered normal. If this is taken as 100 per cent, the normal monsoon range is 96%-104 per cent. Rains in the 104-110 per cent range is termed 'above normal', while those above 110 per cent is excess.

According to the forecast, the monsoon may have a relatively poor start. Rainfall in June is expected to be 13 per cent below normal. The situation is likely to improve sharply in July, when 8 per cent above normal rains are predicted.

Based on the rain prediction, Skymet also made projections for the kharif season. It said the total area under kharif foodgrains was expected to increase by 15-20 per cent over last year. The total foodgrain output in the kharif season could touch 129-130 million tonnes, it said.