Private weather agency Skymet on Tuesday said monsoon would reach Kerala earlier than its due date on June 1.

“As per Skymet weather, the southwest monsoon will arrive over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands between May 18 and 20. It is likely to reach Kerala between May 28 and 30. Thereafter, it will cover other parts of the country. Present weather conditions are indicating a promising beginning of monsoon 2016 which is likely to usher in with a bang,” the agency said in a statement.

One branch of the monsoon system will cover some parts of northeast India around the same time. Kolkata can expect monsoon rains by June 10 and Mumbai likely to receive the first showers of the season between June 12 and 14.

Timely arrival

The whole country is expected to be covered by July 15, the agency said.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD), the country’s official weather forecaster, is expected to announce the date of the monsoon’s landfall over Kerala within this week.

In the wake of two consecutive years of drought that has led to water in India’s major dams dip precipitously, a timely monsoon onset gels with predictions by several weather agencies last month, including the IMD, of an ‘above average’ monsoon.

Monsoon rains within 96 per cent and 104 per cent of 89 cm are considered “normal” in the terminology of the IMD and this year it is forecast to be 106 per cent.

El Nino

Expectations of a timely monsoon largely rest on a receding El Nino. The global, meteorological phenomenon refers to a warming of the waters of Central Pacific. “From what we see the El Nino is dipping consistent with our expectations and we expect it to be neutral in the coming months,” said Madhavan Rajeevan, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences.