India is set to produce lesser sugar than previously estimated by industry bodies and government agencies, with the cane crop maturing early and losing weight due to weather conditions in key growing regions, farmers and traders told Reuters.

Lower sugar output could prevent the world's second-biggest exporter from allowing additional exports, potentially supporting global prices , , and helping rivals Brazil and Thailand to increase their shipments.

India was estimated to produce 34 to 34.3 million tonnes of sugar in the 2022/23 marketing year ending on Sept. 30, down from last season's 35.8 million tonnes, according to trade bodies last month.

But falling sugar cane yields in top producing Maharashtra state and third-biggest producer Karnataka due to early maturity of the crop has been prompting some trade houses to scale down production estimates further. 

"Our current estimate is 33.5 million tonnes. We would not rule out a downside risk to below 33 million tonnes, which would be very concerning for global sugar supplies," Mauro Virgino, head of trading intelligence at Alvean, told Reuters.

Alvean, the world's largest sugar trader, did two extensive field surveys, including