Despite a widespread drought hurting India’s monsoon-dependent kharif crop and a warm and dry winter that is likely to affect rabi crops such as wheat and pulses, the government estimates foodgrain output will rise in 2015-16.
The second advance estimate released by the agriculture ministry on Monday said foodgrain output will rise to 253.2 million tonnes (mt) in 2015-16 from 252 mt in the previous year, which was also a deficit monsoon year.
The latest estimates do not capture the stress farmers are facing because of repeated crop loss, said Sudhir Panwar, farm leader and member of the Uttar Pradesh state planning board.
Estimated output this year is still 4.5% lower than the record production of 265 mt in 2013-14, a normal monsoon year.
According to the estimates, India’s wheat output will be 93.82 mt, 7.3 mt more than last year and 2.3 mt higher than the past five-year average.
At 86.53 mt, India’s last winter harvest was the lowest in five years after freak rain caused heavy damage just ahead of harvesting.
This year, an unusually dry and warm winter raised fears of a reduced harvest, but the agriculture ministry is hoping it won’t affect crop output, the estimates show. More so as sowing of wheat was lower by 3%, compared with the normal sowing area and 4.4% lower compared with 2014-15.
Further, the ministry is expecting a marginally higher pulses output of 17.33 mt in 2015-16, compared with 17.15 mt the year before.
Surprisingly, the projected rise in winter pulses output comes amid a 4.3% drop in planting area. “The data is inconsistent as rain-fed crops such as cotton and coarse grains are expected to be hit badly, while pulses (also a rain-fed crop) output is estimated to rise,” said Panwar. “In Uttar Pradesh, the wheat crop is in a bad shape due to higher temperatures. The centre has assisted 11 states to counter the fallout of a drought. Sowing numbers are lower for pulses and wheat. Yet the government is projecting a higher output.”
The anticipated higher production of foodgrain, especially wheat and pulses, is despite a monsoon deficit of 14%, with as many as 10 states declaring a drought. The drought in 2015 came on the back of a deficit rainfall of 12% recorded in 2014.
The June-to-September southwest monsoon is critical for the kharif crop as nearly half of India’s crop area is rain-fed.
A dry monsoon also affects the next harvest as winter crops are sown using the residual moisture after harvesting of kharif crops.
The latest estimates show that the production of crops such as rice, coarse cereals, oilseeds and cotton are likely to be hit, compared with last year.
While the production of rice is estimated at 103.6 mt, lower by 1.87 mt when compared with 2014-15, the production of coarse cereals is estimated at 38.4 mt, 11.6% lower when compared with the previous year.
At 26.34 mt, India’s oilseed output is expected to be lower by nearly 1.2 mt from the year before.
Among other crops, the production of sugarcane is estimated at 346.4 mt, 4.4% lower than 2014-15, while the production of cotton is estimated at 30.69 million bales (of 170kg each)—a drop of 13.4% from the previous year.