The total area under sugarcane in the country is projected to be around 54.55 lakh hectares (lh) this year, some three per cent higher than 52.88 lh last year, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said on Wednesday. The area under sugarcane decides the sugar production for the next season (October 2021-September 2022).
The apex body of the private sugar industry estimated that sugar mills in the country would be producing 31. million tonnes (mt) of sugar in the coming season and there would be a significant diversion of cane juice and B-heavy molasses for ethanol production.
This diversion will lead to a reduction of 2.4 mt of sugar in 2021-22 compared with 2.1 mt during the current sugar season, ISMA said.
In comparison, sugar mills that produced 30.7 mt of sugar till date are expected to produce an additional 0.2 mt as some mills in Karnataka and Tamil Nadu will have special crushing sessions, taking the total sugar production in the country to 30.9 mt.
The sugarcane area estimates were arrived at a meeting convened by ISMA where representatives from sugar-producing States participated to discuss satellites images of the cane area, field reports about expected yield, sugar recovery, drawal percentage, impact of previous and current year’s rainfall, water availability in reservoirs and expected rainfall during the current monsoon season.
State-wise production
Uttar Pradesh is estimated to have sugarcane area at 23.12 lh, similar to 23.07 lh in the current sugar year. ISMA, however, said it is expecting a marginal increase in yield as well as sugar recovery and thus the estimated sugar production, without considering diversion for production of ethanol in the coming season is projected to be around 11.93 mt.
The sugarcane area has gone up by 11 per cent in Maharashtra, on the other hand, to 12.75 lh from 11.48 lh in the current 2020-21 season. Sugar production expected from the State is around 12.13 mt, without taking into consideration the diversion for ethanol production.
Karnataka, too, reported a slight increase in sugarcane area which is slated to be 5.22 lha compared with 5.01 lh this season. This can yield 4.87 mt of sugar, without ethanol diversion. The remaining States are expected to collectively produce about 5.46 mt of sugar in the next sugar season, ISMA said.
Ethanol diversion
Similarly, total contracted quantity of ethanol till July 5 is 333 crore litres. Ethanol manufactured from sugarcane juice and B-Heavy molasses is expected to be 230 crore litres, which translates into diversion of around 2.1 mt of sugar into ethanol.
During the next year 2021-22, since the target of 10 per cent blending is expected to be achieved, about 450 crore litres of ethanol would be required, which will be about 117 crore litres more than the expected supplies in 2020-21.
Assuming that most of the additional quantity of 117 crore litres will come from cane juice and B-Heavy molasses, it will translate into diversion of an additional 1.3 mt of sugar compared with this year. This would mean a total of approximately 3.4 mt of sugar will be diverted into ethanol next season, ISMA said.
Compared with 10.7 mt opening stocks at the beginning of the current sugar season, the opening balance in October this year is expected to be 8.7 mt.