PUNE: Even if sugar production in Maharashtra drops considerably due to drought in the state, India will still have surplus sugar due to large area under the crop, huge carry forward stocks and dismal exports. However, if there is not enough water in the reservoirs by November, the 300 lakh-tonne cane-rich Marathwada region can pose a problem for the state government. The cane quantity is much higher than what can be used as fodder. 

In its preliminary estimate, Indian Sugar Mills Association (Isma) has projected about 280 lakh tonnes of sugar for the 2015-16 season, which is about 3 lakh tonnes less than last year. It is also estimated to have about 102 lakh tonnes of sugar opening balance on October 1, 2015. 
 

Solapur district has the highest area under cane in Maharashtra, the top sugar producer. However, the water level in Ujani reservoir, the lifeline of Solapur district, has zero live water storage as of Wednesday. 

Baban Shinde, Member of Legislative Assembly and chairman of Vitthalrao Shinde Sahakari Sakhar Karkhana from Madha in Solapur, said, "If it rains in September and October, water may not remain a problem for starting mills. However, the fact that close to 50 per cent of sugar cane has been wilted beyond repair, will result in close to 50 per cent reduction in sugar production in So lapur district," said Shinde. 

Many sugar mills use water that is present in the sugarcane for operations of the mill -this reduces the total water requirement of sugar factory by about 60-70 per cent. 

Even in the Kolhapur-Sangli belt, a region that's blessed with adequate water, fertile soil and is known as the sugar bowl of Maharashtra, farms depending on well irrigation are showing signs of wilting. Despite the water stress on the standing cane, industry insiders say that even if the cane availability in Maharashtra and Karnataka declines by 15 million tonnes, there will still be more sugar than India can consume. 

"We will like to wait for the retreating monsoon as in the past three years it has compensated for the lower rainfall in earlier part of monsoon," said Abinash Verma, director general, ISMA.  Since agriculture minister Eknath Khadse indicated that some mills in Marathwada may not get permission to crush cane due to water scarcity, there is confusion in the industry. Former Union agriculture minister Sharad Pawar has said that the state government will have to compensate farmers if their cane is not crushed. 

"There is about 300 lakh tonne cane in Marathwada and Solapur districts. It is impossible to use all this cane as fodder," said a sugar mill MD, requesting not to be named.