With sugarcane acreage keeping pace with sown area at the same time last year, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) estimates production for the 2015-16 season (October-September) to be around 280 lakh tonnes (lt).

Glut extends

While the forecast is 3 lt less than the expected total output by the end of this season, it would be the sixth consecutive year when supply exceeds demand, which is pegged at 252 lt.

With poor realisation from a glut in the domestic market and a global price slump, opening stock on October 1 is expected to be 102 lt, the highest in seven years.

According to data released by ISMA here on Friday, cane acreage stood at 53.58 lakh hectares (lh) in the latter part of June, marginally higher than 53.23 lh at the same time last year. “This preliminary estimate of sugarcane crop and production is on the current monsoon progress, water situation and other fundamental factors across India,” said a statement.

It added that ISMA will release the first advance estimates for 2015-16 in September when the crop is fully mature.

Sugarcane area in Uttar Pradesh, the largest cane producing State, is estimated at 23.14 lh, against 23.07 lh in 2014-15.

State-wide break up

The association expects better yield and expects sugar output in UP for the 2015-16 season to be 73.5 lakh tonnes (lt) – 3.5 per cent higher than the 71 lt produced in 2014-15.

Maharashtra is expected to match last year’s 10.6 lh though ISMA sees lower yield due to poor rainfall in the region. Sugar output may fall by 7.6 per cent to around 97 lt in the upcoming season.

Production in Karnataka is likely to keep pace with the record output of 49.6 lt this season. The association expects acreage to be about 5.14 lh while production will touch 49.8 lt.

Tamil Nadu is expected to produce around 12.7 lt in 2015-16.