The International Sugar Organization (ISO) said on Tuesday it was forecasting a global sugar deficit of 3.5 million tonnes (mt) in the 2020/21 season with the outlook for production downgraded.
The inter-governmental body had previously forecast a much smaller deficit of 724,000 tonnes for the current season.
The ISO, in a quarterly update, forecast global production for the 2020/21 season (Oct/Sept) at 171.1 mt, down from a previous projection of 173.5 mt.
Downward revisions included Thailand (8.2 mt from 8.7 mt), India (31 mt vs 31.5 mt) and the European Union (16.3 mt from 16.8 mt).
Consumption in the 2020/21 season was seen at 174.6 mt, slightly above its previous forecast of 174.2 mt and now up 2.9 per cent from the prior season.
“The outlook for the 2020/21 cycle should incorporate the imposition of new lockdown measures in a number of countries particularly in Europe,” the ISO said, noting lockdowns designed to slow the spread of Covid-19 had curbed consumption in 2019/20.
The ISO also estimated there would be a global surplus of 1.9 million tonnes in the 2019/20 season after previously projecting a marginal deficit of 136,000 tonnes.
The shift was driven largely by an upward revision for Brazilian sugar production in 2019/20 to 39.8 mt from 37.4 mt.