India's sugar production is estimated to increase by 13 per cent to 31 million tonnes in the 2020-21 marketing season starting this month, on likely higher availability of sugarcane, according to industry body ISMA.

The output has been estimated after taking into account a likely diversion of about 2 million tonne of cane juice and B molasses for ethanol production, it said. In the 2019-20 season (October-September), sugar production remained lower at 27.42 million tonnes and diversion to ethanol was about 0.8 million tonnes.

Since higher production is pegged for the 2020-21 season, ISMA said that India will need to continue to export about 6 million tonne of surplus sugar this season.

Releasing initial estimates, Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said: "After accounting for the reduction in sugar production due to diversion of cane juice and B-molasses to ethanol, ISMA estimates sugar production in 2020-21 at around 31 million tonnes of sugar." With higher availability of sugarcane and surplus sugar production, it is estimated that a larger quantity of cane juice / syrup and B-molasses will get diverted to ethanol.

However, ISMA will get a better idea of this diversion once the tenders are called and bids are given by millers for ethanol supplies, it said in a statement. According to the first advance estimate, sugar production in Uttar Pradesh — the country's largest sugar producing state — is projected to be slightly lower at 12.45 million tonnes in the current 2020-21 season, as against 12.63 million tonnes last season. But the output in Maharashtra — the country's second largest sugar producer — is estimated to increase sharply to 10.80 million tonnes from 6.16 million tonnes in the said period.