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News
After July Dip, monsoon to be normal in Aug, Sept
Date:
01 Aug 2020
Source:
The Economic Times
Reporter:
Shashwat Mohanty
News ID:
45376
Pdf:
Nlink:
NEW DELHI: The monsoon will revive to normal in the next two months after the unexpected dip in July, the weather office said in its revised forecast, which is good news for farmers as crops were getting stressed in many parts of the country because of patchy rainfall in recent weeks.
"Although there have been certain irregularities, we expect the monsoon season to end with a surplus as initially forecast in June," M Rajeevan, secretary, ministry of earth sciences, told ET.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued its revised forecast on Friday, saying total rainfall between August and September would be 104% of long period average. In May, it had forecast total rainfall in the June-September season at 102% of average.
So far, rainfall has been 100.3% of the long-term average, which means the latest forecast implies heavier rainfall ahead. The forecasting model uses 50-year average from 1961 as average, and has an error margin of 8%.
Rainfall during August will be 97% of its normal value of 258.2 mm, IMD added.
Monsoon rainfall got off to a great start in June, ending the month 18% above normal and covering the entire country two weeks before its usual date. However, the momentum halted in July, as the month ended on a deficit of 10% for the month, against a forecast of 3% above normal.
Last year, the monsoon arrived a week late and remained erratic throughout the season. It began on a very weak note and ended with floods in many parts of India.
IMD and international forecasters have also said El Nino conditions will remain neutral this year, with a good chance that the rain-boosting La Nina phenomenon would develop towards the end of the season. This further helps the monsoon. IMD said that the surface waters are currently cold, they are likely to get cooler over the next two months, according to its Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System.
The likelihood of the La Nina phenomenon remains roughly double of it occurring in any year, per the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Although La Nina conditions are currently neutral, they are likely to turn positive in September. A La Nina is associated with an above-normal monsoon season for the Indian subcontinent.
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