The net result of all this: more rainy days in June and a fairly even distribution across the country. The IMD’s records show that only on four days in that month did daily rainfall drop below its historical normal. Except for northwest India, which is staring at a 3% deficit, the rainfall in east, south and central India has posted surpluses of 13%-20%. While good rains in June signal farmers to prepare the soil and sow kharif crop, the most important months are July and August. These two months account for two-thirds of the monsoon rain. This is also the time the monsoon goes into so-called ‘break’ conditions. Prolonged breaks, or an absence of rainfall, can even lead to drought. In spite of significant improvements in data gathering and technological advancement, meteorological agencies cannot yet reliably forecast the advent of a break or how long it can last. What is critical is that ‘normal rains’ also obscure the possibility of heavy rains or severe droughts in districts or over larger areas. Therefore, short and medium range forecasts need to be strengthened and effectively communicated to the people.