The El Nino that’s developing around the world may last right through this year, according to the Food & Agriculture Organization, the United Nations’ body that seeks to ensure global food security.
The moderate-to-severe weather pattern will probably hurt world grain production, Mark Smulders, a senior economist and FAO representative to Indonesia, told a conference. Wheat output may drop 1.4 percent in 2015-2016, he said on Wednesday.
An El Nino was declared last month by forecasters in Australia, and farmers, scientists and investors are seeking to map the probable duration and impact of the pattern that can bake Asia and crimp the frequency of Atlantic hurricanes. India’s government said on Tuesday the influence of the El Nino may contribute to a deficient monsoon this season, potentially hurting farm output in the world’s second most-populous nation.
“There might be quite an impact on production and it may last until the end of the year,” Smulders said in Jakarta. The event is developing along quite an unusual path as normally an El Nino would have peaked by now and be coming down again, but the current one is developing more slowly, he said.
El Ninos are caused by periodic warmings of the Pacific and can roil agricultural markets as farmers contend with drought or too much rain. India’s monsoon rainfall may be 88 percent of a 50-year average, less than the 93 percent seen in April, Earth Sciences Minister Harsh Vardhan said on Tuesday.
NOAA’s View
While episodes usually last nine to 12 months, some events may last for years, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. They often begin to form between June and August, peak between December and April, and then decay between May and July of the following year, it said.
Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, which said the latest El Nino may be substantial, said in its regular forecast last week that similarities in the models that it tracks indicated a low likelihood of the current event breaking down rapidly.
While all eight models showed that the central Pacific will warm further during the coming months, it’s still too early to determine with confidence what the peak ocean temperatures will be, the bureau said.