India’s year-on-year sugar production in 2019-20 till November 30 has almost halved, showing a dip of nearly 54% and experts are of the view that by the end of the 2019-20 sugar season, the likely production will show a dip of almost 20%, as compared to last season.

However, despite the fall, there is no cause for worry, as the country is still expected to end the season with almost 96 lakh tonne stock in hand, thanks mainly to Uttar Pradesh, the country’s largest sugar producing state. While Maharashtra and Karnataka, the two main sugarcane growing states, have been adversely impacted due to a less than normal rainfall, UP has been able to hold fort and has actually increased its sugar production by almost 13% this year as compared to the same period last year.   

According to figures obtained from the UP sugar and cane department, the 119 sugar mills in the state have crushed 2,000 lakh quintal of cane till December 13, as against 1,716 lakh quintal during the same period last year, producing 205 lakh quintal of sugar as compared to last year’s 181 lakh quintal. In percentage terms, the increase in sugar production is nearly 13%.

Speaking to FE, a miller, requesting anonymity, said that while last year the country’s sugar production was around 332 lakh tonne, this year’s production is estimated at 260 lakh tonne.

“While the sugarcane production in Maharashtra and Karnataka is likely to be down substantially, the sugarcane acreage in Uttar Pradesh is going to be more or less the same. Taking into account the crop condition, weather conditions and area under the high yielding cane varieties in the state, an improvement in yield per hectare is expected and hence, sugar production in UP in 2019-20 SS is estimated to be around 120 lakh tonne, which is almost equal to last year’s 121 lakh tonne,” he said.

However, he allayed fears of any shortage of the commodity, stating that while this year, the country’s opening stock in hand was 145 lakh tonne, it is expected to close the season with almost 95 lakh tonne.

“There wouldn’t be any shortage of sugar in the country in near future. We had a carryover stock of about 145.82 lakh tonne of last sugar season together to begin with in the new season. With an estimated all India production of 260 lakh tonne during the current sugar season, the total availability of sugar in the country is estimated to be about 405.82 lakh tonne.

“If we take into account the country’s internal consumption, which amounts to almost 260 lakh tonne, and another 50 lakh tonne for exports and B-Heavy diversion, we safely see the country still having a closing stock of almost 95-100 lakh tonne in September 2020,” he said, adding that the projected sugar inventory in hand after internal consumption and exports is likely to go down from 57% of last year to 37%.

For the industry, which was facing storage problems, this will be a boon as it will be able to ease out the sugar stock that was lying out in the open to a large extent.