NEW DELHI: Seventeen days into September, there’s no sign yet of monsoon beginning to withdraw from the country, the normal date for which is September 1. The monsoon continues to go strong, with another low-pressure system set to bring more wet weather to rain-soaked central India from later this week, met officials said.

A succession of low pressure systems coming into central India from Bay of Bengal has kept the monsoon energised, and led to a countrywide rain surplus of 34% so far in September (till 16th). The previous system that has been impacting central India has persisted over Madhya Pradesh and east Rajasthan for 10 days.           

The monsoon’s withdrawal begins from western Rajasthan with air circulation over the region changing from ‘cyclonic’ to ‘anticyclonic’. That hasn’t happened yet. An anti-cyclonic circulation is set to form in the next five days, but it is likely to temporary,” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of meteorology, IMD Mohapatra said with a fresh low pressure expected to impact central India from around September 18-19, monsoon’s withdrawal is not likely to begin in at least the next one week. This is not very unusual. While September 1 is the “normal date” for the start of monsoon’s retreat, which itself is a long drawn out process, the earliest start of withdrawal in the last nine years was September 4, which happened in 2015. Most monsoons in the past decade have begun to retreat only after September 20. Just as in August, central and south India have received excess rains so far in September, while northwest and northeast India have seen growing deficits. Central India has got more than double its normal share of rainfall (101% above normal) so far in September while the south has had 42% above normal monsoon. In contrast, northwest India has a rain deficit of 28% so far in the month while the east and northeast region has received 14% less rains than normal. “This pattern is characteristic of a good monsoon year with regular low pressure systems bringing rain to central and south India,” said Mohapatra. “States just below the Himalayas, from West Bengal in the east to Haryana in the west, have received deficient rains because there has been no break in the monsoon — which is usually when many of these areas get rain.” And, there’s little chance of northwest India, particularly Haryana, Punjab and west UP, getting much rainfall in the coming days, Mohapatra added. Northwest India now has a cumulative season’s rain shortfall of 8%, while for the east and northeast region, the deficit is more significant at 18%. Central and south India have both received excess rainfall at 23% and 11%, respectively.