Production of the sweetener for the sugar season (SS) of 2019-20 is expected to decline 14% to 28.2 million tonne, which is about 4.7 million tonne lower than the current 2018-19 SS of 32.95 million tonne. This estimated production is based on assumption of normal rainfall and other optimum conditions.
The projected 14% drop in sugar production for the next season is based on the satellite images procured in the later part of June 2019, that showed the total acreage of sugarcane cultivation in the country is 49.31 lakh hectares in 2019-20 SS, which is over 10% lower than 2018-19 SS’s cane area of around 55.02 lakh hectares, said Indian Sugar Mills’ Association (Isma) on Monday.
After considering rainfall in July-September, 2019, water situation in reservoirs and the second set of satellite images in September-October 2019 across India, Isma will review the analysis and release its first advance estimates. By then, crop will be more mature and there will be more clarity on rainfall and water availability. Thereafter, the opening stocks, as on October 1, 2019, is expected to be an all-time high of around 14.5 million tonne.
As compared to a normative requirement of around 5 million tonne on October 1 of any year as opening stocks, the industry is unnecessarily carrying about 9.5 million tonne of inventory. From the estimates for next year’s production, it is clear there will still be a minimal surplus over the domestic requirement in 2019-20 SS, and, therefore, there will be also a need for India to export sugar in the next year, Isma said.
According to its preliminary estimates, Uttar Pradesh — the leading sugarcane and sugar producing state — is estimated to have sugarcane area of 23.60 lakh hectares, against 24.11 lakh hectares in 2018-19 SS, i.e., a marginal decrease of about 2%.
Considering varietal replacement by high-yielding cane varieties in remaining parts of the state, an improvement in yield per hectare is expected under normal conditions. Thus, production in UP in 2019-20 SS is estimated to be 12 million tonne, which is more or less at the same level of 11.82 million tonne produced in 2018-19 SS.
Maharashtra’s cane area has decreased 30% for 2019-20 SS, mainly due to poor rainfall from September 2018 onwards, followed by low reservoir levels, which adversely affected crops.
Cane area is expected to decline to 8.23 lakh hectares in 2019-20 SS, against 11.54 lakh hectares in 2018-19 SS. Production is, therefore, estimated to be 7 million tonne in 2019-20 SS, against 10.71 million tonne in 2018-19 SS. Similarly, sugarcane area in Karnataka has also decreased for 2019-20 SS due to poor rainfall.
Area under sugarcane in 2019-20 SS is expected to be 4.20 lakh hectares, against 5.02 lakh hectares in 2018-19 SS, which is lower by 16%. Hence, production in 2019-20 SS is estimated to be 3.5 million tonne, against 4.36 million tonne expected to be produced in 2018-19 SS.
About 32.80 million tonne have been produced till June-end 2019 in the sugar season of 2018-19 and another 1–1.5 lakh tonne is expected to be produced in the special season till September 2019 in Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, taking the total sugar output in 2018-19 SS to about 32.95 million tonne. In the current season 2018-19, about 29.5 crore litres of ethanol made from ‘B’ heavy molasses/sugarcane juice have been so far supplied to oil marketing companies. According to standards, this is equivalent to sugar diversion of about 3 lakh tonne.
Sugarcane area in Tamil Nadu for 2019-20 SS has decreased to about 2.30 lakh hectares, against 2.60 lakh hectares in 2018-19 SS, mainly due to deficient rainfall during monsoon 2018 in major cane-growing districts.Production is expected to be around 7.5 lakh tonne in 2019-20 SS, against the expectation of 8.60 lakh tonne in 2018-19 SS.
The remaining states are expected to collectively produce about 50 lakh tonne in 2019-20 SS, almost at the same level as in the current season.