Indian and Thai sugar production are expected to fall in the 2019/20 season, contributing to a global supply deficit, but large stockpiles in both countries are likely to continue to hang over the market, said Jeremy Austin, general director of Sucden Brazil.

A global sugar deficit of 2.5 million tonnes is seen developing in 2019/20 after a small surplus in the previous year, Austin said in a presentation at an industry event at New York Sugar Week. Indian sugar production in 2019/20 is seen between 27 and 28 million tonnes, while Thai sugar production is seen at 13.5 million tonnes compared to 14.6 million tonnes in the previous year.

Still, large stockpiles around the world are likely to limit market gains, Austin said. “Any improvement in price would probably lead to stocks coming out, whether it be from India, whether it be from Thailand, whether it be from other places,” Austin said.