India expects to end the current sugar season with a record production of around 33 million tonne, which is more than last season’s 32.5 million tonne. At the end of April in the current season (October 2018 to April 30 2019), the sugar production grew 3% to 32.19 million tonne as compared to 31.18 million tonne in the same period last season. Compared to 110 sugar mills, which were still crushing sugarcane as of April 30, 2018 (last season), only 100 sugar mills were crushing sugarcane this season (as on April 30, 2019), said the apex body Indian Sugar Mills’ Association (Isma) on Friday.
Considering the opening balance of 10.7 million tonne on October 1, 2018 and the estimated production of 33 million tonne in the current season, it is believed that the sugar stocks at the end of current sugar season are expected to be at a much higher level of around 14.70 million tonne post domestic consumption of 26 million tonne as well exports of 3 million tonne, say Isma officials.
According to the apex body, the field reports from Maharashtra suggest that sugarcane planting in most of the regions in Maharashtra for harvesting in 2019-20 season is significantly lower than the sugarcane harvested in the current season. Additionally, due to substantially lower rainfall during last season’s monsoon (June to September 2018) as also during the retreating monsoon (October to December 2018), water in most of the reservoirs in Maharashtra is much below normal levels, which remained so, for most of the last 7 to 8 months. Therefore, the indications are that the acreage under sugarcane in Maharashtra for next year’s harvesting will be significantly lower than the current season.
Therefore, at an all India level, there is a general expectation that the sugarcane availability will be much lower in 2019-20 than what has been in the current season, thereby reducing sugar production next year. Further, with additional ethanol production capacities getting installed and expanding existing capacities at a fast pace, the sugar industry will be better placed to divert larger quantities of ‘B’ heavy molasses/sugarcane juice, away from sugar into ethanol in the last season. That, in turn, will further reduce sugar production in the next season.
Isma said that it will obtain satellite images of the sugarcane area across the country in latter part of June 2019 to make its preliminary estimates of sugarcane availability and sugar production for 2019-20 sugar season.
It further said that with lesser number of sugar mills working as of now, sugar production in the balance part of the current season will be much less than what was produced from 1st May 2018 to 30th September 2018 last year. The sugar recovery in northern India has been substantially better than the recovery achieved last season. In other parts of the country, including Maharashtra and Karnataka also, the sugar recovery is better than last year, though not as high as achieved in north India. Therefore, even though the quantum of sugarcane crushing in the current season is less than that in the last season, the sugar production in 2018-19 will be marginally more than last year.
The pace of sugar production in the last 15-20 days has slowed down, with large number of sugar mills shutting their crushing operations faster than what was seen in the last season. Maharashtra’s sugar production has reached 10.7million tonne as on April end and all the mills except one have ended their operations for the season. In UP, sugar mills have produced 11.26 million tonne, which is 27,000 tonne higher than the production achieved by them last year on the corresponding date. Out of 119 mills which operated this year, 51 mills have ended their crushing and 68 mills continue their operations now.
All sugar mills in Karnataka have ended their crushing for the season 2018-19 season and they have produced 4.32 million tonne till 30th April 2019. Sugar mills in Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh & Telangana and Madhya Pradesh & Chhatisgarh have produced 1.119 million tonne, 7.05 lakh tonne, 7.60 lakh tonne and 5.30 lakh tonne, respectively. Similarly, sugar mills of Bihar, Punjab and Haryana have produced 8.35 lakh tonne, 7.70 lakh tonne and 6.75 lakh tonne sugar till April end.