NEW DELHI: India is likely to have a ‘near normal’ monsoon this year, said India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday in what could be an encouraging signal to farmers and the overall economy ahead of the remaining six phases of the Lok Sabha elections. Though there is only 39% probability of ‘near normal’ monsoon in the first stage forecast, prediction of a “well distributed rainfall scenario” by the country’s national weather forecaster will bring a cheer to agriculturalists as skewed distribution — a pattern sometimes linked to climate change — leaves one or the other region of the country in a deficient rainfall (drought) situation. IMD’s forecast differs from private forecaster Skymet’s prediction of a below normal monsoon. “Forecast suggests that the 2019 south-west monsoon rainfall is likely to be near normal. Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall is likely to be 96% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%,” said M Rajeevan, ministry of earth sciences (MoES) secretary.

Interestingly, IMD for the first time used ‘near normal’ as a category in place of ‘normal’ with its chief K J Ramesh later explaining both (normal and near normal) as technically the same while flagging this year’s forecast of 96% of the LPA. The percentage sits on the line separating normal-below normal.

The LPA of the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm. The monsoon is categorised as ‘normal’ when the June-September period has rainfall in the range of 96-104% of the LPA. On the other hand, the seasonal rainfall is considered ‘below normal’ if it falls in the range of 90-96% of the LPA. Asked if existing El Nino phenomena will have its impact on monsoon this year, Ramesh said such conditions were likely to persist during the monsoon season but with reduced intensity in the later part of the season. Based on El Nino conditions, Skymet Weather had on April 3 predicted ‘below normal’ monsoon for 2019 by pegging the countrywide rainfall during the monsoon period (June-September) at 93% of the LPA. “Overall, the country is expected to have well distributed rainfall scenario during the 2019 monsoon season, which will be beneficial to farmers in the country during the ensuing Kharif (summer crops) season,” said Ramesh while emphasising on treating 2019 as ‘normal’ monsoon year for all practical purposes (including preparedness in the agriculture ministry in terms of its extension services to farmers across the country).

The forecast, however, indicates 17% probability of drought (deficient monsoon) and 32% probability of ‘below normal’ rainfall. The IMD’s forecast, in fact, invariably shows a gap between its first stage forecast and actual figure beyond model error of +/- 5% if one takes into account the last 10 years’ data. It had predicted normal rainfall (97% of the LPA with a model error of +/- 5%) for the year 2018, but the rainfall actually turned out to be ‘below normal’ with nearly 91% of the LPA. This was also due to sharply deficient rainfall in the north-east that pulled down the average. Prediction on region-wise and month-wise distribution of rainfall will, however, be released in the IMD’s second stage forecast in first week of June. The forecast agency will come out with the prediction of onset date of monsoon by mid-May. Good rains invariably bring higher farm output which, in turn, drives rural demand and the overall economy. As far as impact on farm output is concerned, the impact is felt in a drought year like in 2014-15 and 2015-16 — the first two years of the Modi government — when India recorded decline in foodgrain production as compared to 2013-14 which had seen ‘above normal’

The country saw 265 million tonnes (MT) of foodgrain production in 2013-14 which fell to 252 MT in 2014-15 and 251 MT in 2015-16. It bounced back to 275 MT of output in 2016-17 when the year reported ‘normal’ monsoon rainfall. The output did not decline when the country had faced ‘below normal’ rainfalls in 2017-18 and 2018-19 and recorded 284 MT and 281 MT of foodgrain production, respectively — indicating ‘below normal’ rainfall doesn’t necessarily affect overall output if the government takes contingency measures in advance on the basis of the forecast. “It is noted that El Niño predictions made in February/March generally have more uncertainties compared to the El Niño predictions made in June,” Ramesh said. The IMD made its forecast of ‘near normal’ monsoon based on state-of-the-art Statistical Ensemble Forecasting System (SEFS). The forecast based on Climate Forecasting System (CFS) model, using global atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions up to March, on the other hand, suggests that the monsoon rainfall averaged over the country as a whole is likely to be 94% of the LPA (with an error of +/-5%) — a possible reason why the weather agency is being cautious.