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US agencies: El Nino may last through summer, affect rains

NEW DELHI: In what could be an early warning for this year’s monsoon,

US weather agencies have forecast a 60% chance of El Nino continuing

through summer. The forecast, if it holds, could cast a shadow over India’s

rainy season.

A weak El Nino was finally declared to have set in over the Pacific Ocean

in February by several weather agencies. Since then, these conditions

have strengthened and most international weather agencies now predict

that El Nino would persist for the next few months.

However, there is yet uncertainty over how the El Nino would last.

Weather agencies warn that El Nino forecasts during March tend to have

lower credibility because conditions could change in the spring season.

El Nino is an abnormal warming of ocean waters in the east and central equatorial Pacific, which leads to changes in

atmospheric circulations that impact weather over many parts of the world. Often, but not always, these impacts include a

weakening of monsoon rainfall over India. A weak El Nino can adversely impact the monsoon as much as a strong event.

According to the US’s Climate Prediction Centre, weak El Nino conditions are likely to continue through spring 2019 (80%

chance) and summer (60% chance). “The current event bears some similarities to the 2015 spring El Nino that went on to

become a strong event by winter. However, it's too soon to tell whether this event will follow the same path,” a US advisory

said.

An India Meteorological Department bulletin, released earlier this month, also says a weak El Nino has set in. But IMD’s models

show El Nino could dissipate by June-July.

“As per the current outlook, we expect El Nino to last till June and neutral conditions to set in thereafter. However, the picture

will get clearer in the next couple of months when model accuracy increases,” said D Sivananda Pai, head of IMD’s long range

forecasting section.

Forecasts of El Nino’s onset were being made since September last year. However, warming of the ocean began only in

December. In February, most weather agencies finally declared El Nino had set in, with associated changes in the atmosphere

also taking place. IMD will release its first monsoon forecast for this year in mid-April. By then, hopefully, meteorologists will

have a clearer picture about El Nino. For the final word on El Nino, however, forecasters may have to wait till May

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