Sugar output in India, the world’s second-largest producer and the biggest consumer, will likely rise up to 5% year-on-year in the next marketing year starting October despite a slight drop in cane area and poor showers in parts of Uttar Pradesh, according to the first advance estimate by the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA).
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Production is expected to hit 25-25.50 million tonne in 2014-15, compared with 24.30 million tonne this year and 25.14 milllion tonne a year ago, according to ISMA.
However, the association is expected to revise its forecast again in October “once there is clarity on the impact of monsoon”, it said. Last month, ISMA had said sugar consumption could rise 2% in 2014-15 to 24.50 million tonnes.
Among key states, while Maharashtra and Karnataka would produce more than 2013-14 levels, Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu would produce less.
An 11% rise in cane acreage in Maharashtra, where both yield and the recovery rate are much higher than it is in Uttar Pradesh as well as most other states, is the biggest driver of the potential rise in the country’s production.
“The Adsali and pre-seasonal cane varieties are being reported in a larger area compared with last year and since this gives better yields and sugar recovery, compared with the 12-month crop, it is expected that sugarcane yields and sugar recovery in Maharashtra will be better than last year,” ISMA said.
The state is expected to produce around 9.3 million tonnes in 2014-15, around 20% higher than 2013-14 level of 7.71 million tonnes.
However, output in Uttar Pradesh — the second-largest sugar producing state in the country — is estimated at about 6 million tonnes, 8% less than almost 6.5 million tonnes produced this year, mainly due to an 8% drop in cane area at 2.31 million hectares.
Karnataka is estimated to have about 0.49 million hectares of acreage under sugarcane, 2% higher than 2013-14. Therefore, it is estimated that about 4.45 million tonnes of sugar will be produced by the mills in Karnataka, which is around 7% higher than the 4.15 million tonnes expected to be produced in the current sugar season,” ISMA said.
Production in Tamil Nadu could drop almost 20% to 1.1 million tonnes of sugar in 2014-15, as poor rainfall in the state may affect recovery as well as yield and the crop area has dropped almost 13% to 0.25 million hectares. Production in Gujarat is expected to be around 1.2 million tonnes, while Andhra Pradesh may produce 1 million tonnes, almost similar to 2013-14 levels.