Brazil, traditionally the world’s top sugar producer, is poised to cede the crown to India for the first time in 16 years. Production in the Asian country this season may rise 5.2% to a record 35.9 million ton on increasing acreage and improving yields, the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service said Tuesday in a report. Brazil’s output may tumble 21% to 30.6 million tonne because of adverse weather and a shift to produce more cane-based ethanol.

Global production is forecast to fall 4.5% to 185.9 million tonne, trailing the May estimate of 188.3 million, after the outlooks for Brazil, Thailand and the European Union were revised lower. Brazil is expected to remain the top exporter, followed by Thailand. The marketing season runs from April to March in the South American nation and from October to September in India. Most countries run from May to April.

Global inventory is forecast to rise as “massive stock building” in India counters lower supplies in China and the EU, the USDA unit said. Raw-sugar futures have slumped 18% this year in New York amid bumper crops. In 2017, the price tumbled 22%.