New Delhi: Monsoon rainfall is likely to be below average this year, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Thursday in a forecast which, if it proves to be correct, could jeopardize a fragile economic recovery, push up food prices and quickly make life difficult for the next government.

“We have forecast that the rainfall is likely to be 95% of the long-period (50-year) average, which means below normal rainfall this monsoon season,” IMD director general L.S. Rathore said.

The June-September monsoon accounts for more than 70% of the annual rainfall in India and irrigates crops grown on half the country’s farmlands. Agriculture accounts for about a fifth of India’s gross domestic product.

Potentially, a below-average monsoon could roil the economic outlook after two years of sub-5% GDP growth. Not only would it hurt the kharif, or summer, crop and stoke food price inflation, it could reduce the room for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut borrowing costs to propel an economic recovery.

It would also pose an immediate challenge to the government that assumes office after the April-May general election.

The margin for error in the IMD’s forecast is plus or minus 5%. The Met considers it a normal monsoon when the rainfall exceeds 96% of its long-period average.

There is a 35% possibility of normal rainfall in the June-September monsoon season, the Met predicted, but cautioned that the chances of below-normal precipitation was as high as 33%. The chances of deficient rainfall are 23%, according to the forecast.

“The forecast probabilities of both below-normal rainfall and deficient rainfall are much more as against their climatological probabilities,” Rathore said.

Some weather forecasters have warned that the odds of the El Nino weather phenomenon, which is rooted in the Pacific Ocean, developing this year have increased. The phenomenon that recurs every 3-5 years is associated with scanty rainfall and possible drought in India and other parts of South Asia.

IMD has predicted a 60% chance of the El Nino developing during the monsoon season.

Monsoon forecasts during El Nino years have proven to be tricky for the meteorological department in the past. It had forecast below-average rainfall in 1997, one of the century’s strongest El Nino occurrences, but rainfall that year was normal. In 2002, IMD had forecast a normal monsoon, but there was a severe drought following 56% below-normal rainfall in July.

For now, economists are choosing to be cautious.

It is too early to press the panic button, said D.K. Joshi, chief economist at the rating agency Crisil Ltd.

“A lot will depend on the time and geographical distribution of rainfall. An El Nino also does not necessarily lead to a below-normal rainfall,” he added.

Joshi conceded that if rainfall is below normal, it will aggravate already sticky inflation and complicate monetary policy decision-making for RBI.

“With no engine of growth firing, monsoon this year is critical. But the rising risks of a monsoon failure mean we can no more rely on god to deliver growth,” he said.

RBI, since Raghuram Rajan became governor in September, has raised its key policy rate by 75 basis points to 8% to fight inflation. One basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point.

On 1 April, it kept the rate unchanged.

Both retail and wholesale price inflation accelerated in March after a three-month decline because of rising food prices. While Consumer Price Index-based inflation accelerated to 8.31% in March from 8.1% a month ago, the Wholesale Price Index-based inflation quickened to 5.7% from 4.68% in the same period.

A deficient monsoon is a worrying prospect for farmers in a country where 49% of the population is dependent on agriculture and related activities for a living.

India recorded a bumper food crop last year as the country received 6% more than the 50-year average rainfall between June and September. Foodgrain production in 2013-14 stood at 263.20 million tonnes, the highest since 2001, official data show.

The monsoon made landfall in Kerala on 1 June last year and had advanced over the whole country by 15 June, compared with the usual date of 16 July. The pace of the advance of the monsoon last year was the fastest since 1941.