New Delhi: India is likely to receive below-normal rainfall between June and September, the main monsoon months, as the El Niño evolves with the warming of the Central and East Pacific Ocean, according to private forecaster Skymet Weather Services Pvt. Ltd.

El Niño, a weather phenomenon that occurs when the Pacific Ocean heats up abnormally, is usually associated with deficient rainfall in India where farming is heavily dependent on the June-September monsoon.

Skymet forecast monsoon rainfall this year at 94% of the long period average (LPA) of 896 mm rainfall.

The forecasting agency also said the onset of the monsoon will be staggered, which means that while the rains might arrive in Kerala in time, its advance beyond peninsular India is likely to be slow. Northwest and west central India are more at a risk of seeing deficient rainfall.

“There is a 40% chance of below-normal seasonal rainfall, 25% chance of a drought, and 34% chance of normal seasonal rainfall,” said Jatin Singh, chief executive, Skymet. He added that the probability of excess rainfall is 0% this year. The error margin of the Skymet forecast is 4%.

In August, though, rainfall has a 70% chance of being normal, it said.

Regarding the El Niño, the forecasting agency said that though it is still evolving, there is only a 30% chance of this phenomenon getting stronger. “If this El Niño was amplifying, there would be stronger chance of a drought like in 2009. But that does not seem to be the case this time,” Singh said.

The India Meteorological Department is expected to announce its first formal monsoon forecast next week.