Asudden change in weather pattern — unusually cold and rainy conditions — across most parts of northern, western and eastern India along with snow in the Himalayas have brightened the prospect for farm sector output in the country. 

The weather conditions are likely to boost wheat, pulses, and oilseed production besides helping horticulture and orchards. The dip in night temperature is also likely to increase yield of wheat crop which is at the grain formation stage, heading towards ripening. However, agriculture scientists and meteorologists say water logging at isolated places could affect crops. Under the influence of an western disturbance and interaction of winds coming from Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea over central and north-west India, there’s been widespread rainfall over Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and scattered areas over Bihar, north Chattisgarh and Punjab. There has been heavy snowfall over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and at some places over Jammu & Kashmir as well. Wheat, a staple in the country’s food basket, has been sown on over 31.5 million hectares compared with 29.82 million hectares in the previous year. “Rains have led to a drop intemperature which is beneficial for wheat,” said Indu Sharma, head of directorate of wheat research, Karnal. Crop prospects have also brightened in Rajasthan, which harvests 40% of the mustard crop in the country by the first week of April. Mustard production, as per the industry, is poised to rise by 10% to 75 lakh tonnes with an increase in acreage across Rajasthan and Gujarat. 

Globally, there has been a bumper production of canola, sunflower and soyabean, leading to subdued prices. “With an expected bumper mustard crop and soyabean oil imports from South America-Argentina and Brazil from March, there’s been pressure on prices. In the past one month, mustard oil prices have corrected by . 3 a litre and another correction of . 2 a litre is expected,” said Angshu Mallick, CEO of Adani Wilmar, which markets the Fortune brand. 

With chana arrivals starting across Maharashtra and parts of Madhya Pradesh, prices have crashed below the Minimum Support Price of . 3,100 a quintal. “Yields have increased with good rains and we expect pulses imports to fall by 0.5 million tonnes to 3 million tonnes this year,” said Pravin Dongre, president, Indian Pulses and Grains Association. As per the second advance estimates of production of food grain for 2013-14, pulses production is expected to touch 19.77 million tonnes against 18.34 million tonnes in the previous year. 

Horticulture is also likely to gain. “Cold helps in increasing the flowering and fruit setting of all temperate fruit crops, particularly apple, pear, walnut and almond. Residue moisture will also be beneficial for the spring summer crop,” said SK Malhotra, horticulture commissioner, in Delhi. “Another spell of rains will take place from February 19, leading to heavy snowfall over Jammu & Kashmir and rains over northwest India,” said BP Yadav, head of the National Weather Forecasting Centre at IMD in New Delhi. However, the prolonged rains could lead to water logging, resulting in a drop in yield, and could also cause pest infestation. Sharma said farmers were advised to ensure proper drainage of the wheat fields. 

“The weather is conducive for spreading fungal disease yellow rust and appearance of Karnal bunt,” he added.