New Delhi, April 4
India is expected to experience a “normal” monsoon this year with no chance of drought, private forecaster Skymet said on Wednesday, bringing a major relief to the farming sector. While country’s official forecaster India Meteorological Department is yet to give its prediction, Skymet said most regions, including the Northwest, except parts of peninsular India, are likely to experience “normal rains”.
“Monsoon 2018 is likely to remain normal at 100 per cent (with an error margin of +/-5%) of the long period average (LPA) of 887 mm for the four-month period between June and September,” it said in an encouraging prediction for the distressed farm sector and the country at large.
Winter has registered very less rainfall and the levels in key reservoirs of the country are going down by the day. The four-month season accounts for 70 per cent of the country’s annual rainfall. Almost two-thirds of the country’s agricultural land is rain-fed.
As per Skymet, there is 55 per cent chance of a normal rainfall (between 95 and 105 per cent of the LPA), only 20 per cent chance of above normal rainfall, 20 per cent chance of below normal rainfall and nil chance of drought.
June, it says, will record 111 per cent rains of the LPA. Thereafter, “gradual warming of Pacific Ocean would result in devolving La Nina conditions, which would slightly impact its performance in following months”.
Therefore, July and August may see comparatively lesser rainfall — 97 per cent and 96 per cent of the LPA, respectively. August may end up in “slightly below normal” category, it adds.
Meanwhile, North India — comprising Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh — has good chances of seeing a normal season.
In the last two years, barring Rajasthan, several parts of the North received deficit rainfall.
Countrywide prediction