Initial predictions released by the Indian meteorological department (IMD) have shown favourable monsoon conditions from the Pacific and Indian Ocean, which increases the probability of a normal monsoon this year.

These indications for a favourable monsoon were made in IMD's recent El Niño southern oscillation and Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) bulletin for March. 

 As per the bulletin, currently, La Niña conditions are existing over equatorial Pacific Ocean. The latest monsoon mission climate forecasting system forecast has indicated that, La Niña conditions are likely to persist for the entire forecast period.

La Niña causes mostly the opposite effects of El Niño. El Niño events are associated with warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific, while La Niña events are associated with a sustained cooling of these same areas. 

Speaking about the bulletin, head at the climate monitoring and analysis group at IMD, Pune, AK Srivastava said, "Existence of La Nina as highlighted in the bulletin would be good for monsoon. The highlights of the bulletin show that so far some of the conditions are favourable for monsoon and hence, we can say that monsoon this year would not be bad." 

The bulletin states that neutral IOD conditions are prevailing over equatorial Indian Ocean.

Speaking about impact of IOD, Srivastava said that a positive IOD is favourable for monsoon. 

"Amplitude of IOD is very less compared to La Nina.Also IOD cannot be forecast very accurately this early. Also negative IOD affects monsoon adversely. We must understand that monsoon is governed by various factors and this is just one of the many,” said Srivastava.