New Delhi, July 9:

Sugar output in 2013-14 season beginning October may decline by about five per cent to 23.7 million tonnes over the current year’s 25 million tonnes, according to early estimates by the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA).

The projected decline is on account of a 1.5 per cent drop in cane acreage for the next crushing season on lower planting in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. A record planting in Uttar Pradesh, the country’s largest cane growing State, is unlikely to offset the decline in the southern States.

ISMA, based on the satellite images in June and field visits by its research team, expects cane acreage to be 51.50 lakh ha, compared with last year’s 52.30 lakh ha. In UP, the area is expected to be 3.1 per cent higher at 25 lakh ha, despite pending cane of payments of about 4,000 crore to farmers.

The substantially higher sugar cane prices in comparison to other competing crops in UP such as paddy and wheat is seen luring more farmers to the crop. The other sub-tropical States such as Haryana, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh are also witnessing a rising trend in sugarcane acreage over last year, ISMA said.

However, drought in Maharashtra last year could shrink the cane area by 12.5 per cent to around 8.2 lakh ha against last year’s 9.4 lakh ha. Similarly, in Karnataka the acreage is expected to be lower by eight per cent to 3.9 lakh ha for the 2013-14 season against last year’s 3.9 lakh ha.

However, the worst affected among the tropical States is Tamil Nadu, where the cane area may decline by 16 per cent at 2.7 lakh ha over last year’s 3.2 lakh ha due to poor rains last year.

The reported sugarcane acreage of ISMA is, however, about eight per cent higher compared with the Government’s latest estimates. The difference might be due to the fact that the Ministry of Agriculture's reported figures are based on a still ongoing field survey in a couple of States like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and other sub-tropical zones, where the 2012-13 crushing season started later than usual. Therefore, the survey is still not complete.

ISMA expects the opening sugar balance for the next season starting October at 80 lakh tonnes, about 20 lakh tonnes more than the normative opening balance that the Government would like to have. The sugar body is expected to review the estimates based on the August satellite imagery ahead of the 2013-14 crushing season.