Reiterating its forecast from June, the India Meteorological Department has said India will get ‘normal’ rain during the remaining months of the monsoon season. India is likely to get 100% of its annual monsoon quota of 89 cm, a slight increase over the 98% forecast by the agency in June.

“The rainfall during August is likely to be 99 ± 9% of LPA and the seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be normal (96% - 104% of LPA),” the IMD said in a statement on Tuesday.

Resurgence ahead

Rainfall had weakened over most of the country in the first week of August after a munificent July, where rainfall exceeded the quota forecast by the IMD. Low rainfall in August — part of a ‘break’ or hiatus anticipated by the meteorologists — has shaved 3% off what the country usually gets between June 1 and August 7. However, India is likely to get 100% of its annual monsoon.

This year, the IMD formally launched a new forecast model — the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS) — that employs supercomputers to forecast the monsoon. This is in addition to the statistical system traditionally employed.

In April and June, figures from both models were made public as part of the IMD’s forecast.

Tuesday’s forecast, however, doesn’t explicitly mention figures from the MMCFS. “Both numbers are extremely close. If there’s a wide difference we will declare that,” D.S. Pai, Chief Forecaster, IMD Pune, told The Hindu.