Buoyed by a rainfall of four per cent more than normal since June 1 and no chance of emergence of El Nino, India’s weather bureau is a picture of optimism.
It believes that farmers would get the required monsoon showers in the next two months, potentially boosting food grain production to another record.
According to India Meteorological Department (IMD) data, the country as a whole received 43.23 cm rainfall between June 1 and July 27, as against a 50-year average of 41.53 cm, up by four per cent.
Only 11 per cent of the total area, particularly Karnataka and Tamil Nadu have got deficient rains, IMD said in a statement.
Official sources said rainfall in August is likely to be close to 99 per cent of the average, while the prediction was for 99 per cent with a model error of 9 per cent.
As the July rainfall was predicted to be 96 per cent of the average and this month may end up with slightly higher than the prediction, officials are not worried much. Forecasters in the US and Australia have reduced the odds of an El Nino emerging this year. El Nino is associated with warming of the Pacific Ocean that causes drought in Asia and Australia and excess rains in South America.
The weather bureau also sticks to its June prediction of India as a whole receiving 98 per cent of the long period average (LPA) of 89 cm rainfall during the 4-month monsoon season this year. According to IMD, normal rainfall is meant to indicate cumulative rains between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of the LPA.
But excessive rains and subsequent floods Gujarat and Rajasthan have reportedly damaged crops like cotton and groundnut. Though the Centre has not received report on the damage, the concerns are limited to very small areas, sources said.
A few districts in Rajasthan, the largest producer of guar and jeera, have been facing excessive rains in last few days, which traders fear may cause 10 per cent damage to crops. Heavy rainfall in Mount Abu, Jodhpur, Barmer, Udaipur, Jalor and Sirohi may damage crops.
According to Skymet, a private weather forecaster, the average rainfall received during July 21-26 was 140 mm in Udaipur and Jodhpur, 160 mm in Barmer and 130 mm in Chittorgarh.
Monsoon accounts for over 70 per cent of the total annual rainfall India gets and it’s crucial for agriculture and hydro-power. Over 50 per cent of the cultivable land directly depends on monsoon in kharif season. The monsoon is critical even for winter crops as it recharges water levels in reservoirs and provides the required moisture level.
The country received normal rains last year after two consecutive years of drought and it lifted India’s annual food production to a record 273.38 million tonnes.
Indian farmers planted monsoon crops such as rice, pulses and cotton in 68.53 million hectares as of July 21, which is 1.8 per cent more than the corresponding period of last year, according to agriculture ministry data.
Meanwhile, MP, Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Gujarat are unlikely to get any respite as IMD has warned of heavy rains in the coming days over several parts of the flood-hit states. Heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely at isolated places over east Rajasthan; heavy to very heavy at isolated places over west MP and Gujarat region on Friday, warned IMD.
Water storage in 91 major reservoirs rose 39 per cent in the week ended July 27 from 19 per cent as on June 22, an official statement by water resources ministry said.