The monsoon this year is most likely to be normal, science and technology minister S Jaipal Reddy said on Friday while releasing the first long-range forecast for the southwest monsoon by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

According to the IMD, the quantitative seasonal rainfall during the southwest monsoon months (June-September) is likely to be 98% of the long-period average (LPA) or the average countrywide annual rainfall (89 cm) recorded between 1951 and 2000.

In April last year, the IMD had predicted normal rainfall of 99% of the LPA for the four monsoon months while the actual rainfall turned out to be only 92% of the LPA, leading to many parts of the country, including Maharashtra, Gujarat and Karnataka, facing drought-like conditions.

Using a combination of dynamic and statistical models, the IMD's forecast stated that rainfall during the monsoons months would most likely be normal in the range of 96-104% of the LPA. Reddy said that probability of a normal monsoon is high with the probability of 46% while the probability of seasonal rainfall to be below normal is only 27%.

IMD scientists declined to give likely regional variation of the monsoon rains, saying the department would come out with another statement by the middle of May on the onset of the monsoon. However, a senior IMD official told FE that the rains are likely to be deficient in the southern parts of Kerala and

Tamil Nadu.

"We have an assessment of monsoon. Monsoon will be quite satisfactory in India except the southern tip — Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu," food minister KV Thomas said at an earlier function on Friday.

The met department would also come out with second-stage forecast in the middle of June, which would provide expected rainfall for the months of July and August. “The forecast for July rainfall over the country as a whole was an overestimate and that for rainfall during the second half of the monsoon season was an underestimate,” IMD stated in its monsoon report, 2012.

Last year, the monsoon began on a brisk note in June and then lost momentum during the latter part of the month. The rains picked up again in July. The break in rains from June-end to July adversely impacted kharif production. India’s grain output is expected to be around 250-255 million tonne (mt) in 2012-13, down from last year’s record output of 259 mt.

The IMD classifies the monsoon rainfall into categories such as deficient (less than 90% of the LPA), below normal (90-96% of the LPA), normal (96-104% of the LPA), above normal (104-110% of the LPA) and excess (above 110% of the LPA).

FE earlier in the week had reported that the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum that met recently in Kathmandu in its prediction has stated the “large-scale summer monsoon rainfall will mostly likely to be within the normal range with a slight tendency towards higher side of the normal range”.

Monsoon rains are crucial for India as 55% of country agricultural land is rain-fed and production of kharif crops such as pulses, oilseeds, sugarcane and paddy depends on monsoon rains. These crops play a critical role in determining the food inflation graph.

The IMD had predicted deficient rainfall for 2009. But the actual rainfall turned out to be far below the IMD estimates. IMD had also failed to predict the droughts of 2002 and 2004.