After covering the entire country last week, the south-west monsoon has been active over western, central and eastern parts of the country last few days. With the exception of Kerala, south interior Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, the quantum of monsoon rains has been widespread and is currently at ‘above normal’ range which would boost kharif sowing activities. According to India Meteorological Department (IMD), the cumulative rainfall received till Tuesday across the country has been 105% of the benchmark long period average (LPA) or at ‘above normal’ level. Both northwest India and central India have received ‘excess’ rainfall at 116% and 113% of LPA respectively. In case of southern peninsula, the rainfall has been 91% of LPA while in east & northeast region, the rainfall has been 90% of LPA, both in the ‘below normal’ level. So far, the rainfall has been ‘deficient’ in south interior Karnataka (71% of LPA), Kerala (76% of LPA) and Tamil Nadu (71% of LPA). Out of the 36 subdivisions in the country, seven have received ‘excess’ rainfall while 26 got ‘normal’ rains. Only three have received ‘deficient’ rains. In terms of area, 29% of the country fall in ‘excess’ rainfall zone, 63% in ‘normal’ while 8% fall in ‘deficient’ rain zone. The IMD, in its forecast, has stated that during July 27-August 2, the rainfall activity is likely to decrease substantially.
Meanwhile, private forecaster Skymet has stated ‘country wide rainfall will reduce significantly for at least next 10 to 15 days. In fact, the month of August will start with weak monsoon conditions over most parts of the country,” it stated. Last month, the met department predicted that monsoon season (June-September) rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 98% of the (LPA) with a model error of ±4%. The heartening factor is that the showers in July, which has a 33% share in overall monsoon rains, would be 96% of its LPA. August, which has a share of 29% in overall monsoon rains, is expected to receive 99% of LPA. Rainfall in a range of 96-104% of LPA is treated as ‘normal’. LPA rainfall is pegged at 89 cm, on the basis of average between 1951-2000. Because of normal rainfall last year, the country’s food grains production in 2016-17 crop year (July-June) is estimated to reach an all-time record of 273.38 million tonne (MT), which is 8.7% more than the previous year. Due to two consecutive years of deficient monsoons (2014 & 2015), the foodgrains production went down to 252 MT in 2014-15 and 2015-16 crop years from 265 MT reported in 2013-14.