New Delhi: Rains will continue to lash northwest India for a few more days before the southwest monsoon retreats.
“Withdrawal of the southwest monsoon from northwest India would not start in the next five days. Monsoon rains have been been vigorous over SubHimalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Delhi, eastern Uttar Pradesh, Assam, Gujarat region and coastal Karnataka during the last 24 hours,” India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in a statement.
With heavy rainfall witnessed across most of the dry regions in northern, western and eastern India during the past one week, the monsoon deficiency this year has come down to – 7% on Sunday from – 22% just a month back.
The recent rains also imply that 68% of the country has got normal or excess rains till now, while the rest have received deficient rains. The country as a whole has received an average 756 mm of rain till Sunday against normal rainfall of 813 mm.
After the onset of south-western monsoon in June, the rainfall was sluggish initially. It intensified only during the later part of July, leading to a decline in the severity of drought-like conditions prevailing across the country.
India had faced widespread drought in 2009 when monsoon rains were 22% below average.
“We, at present, stand by our short-term monsoon forecast for the day and we are keeping a watch on withdrawal of monsoon,” Shailesh Nayak, secretary, ministry of earth sciences, told FE.
The recent rains, according to an agricultural ministry official, in hugely deficit regions of north Gujarat, Saurashtra, Kutch, Punjab, Haryana and Karnataka are not only expected to boost Kharif sowing, but also help in transplantation of early rabi or winter crops. The rain in September helped retain soil moisture for the forthcoming winter or rabi crops.
The heavy rains have reduced the deficiency for north Gujarat to –26% and for Saurashtra and Kutch to – 35% from a huge – 85 % a forth-night back. After the deficiency in rainfall during June-July, IMD had predicted rainfall distribution during entire season to be 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA).
In July, IMD had marginally downgraded south-western monsoon forecast to 96% of the LPA from its April prediction of 99% of LPA. LPA is calculated on the basis of average annual rainfall received.