New Delhi: Seasonal monsoon showers are expected to improve in the coming days after good rainfall last week and there is no need to press the panic button yet on a monsoon failure, agriculture secretary Ashish Bahuguna told FE.

“The sowing window is still open and there is no reason for unnecessary panic. Monsoon trend seems encouraging now, especially after last week’s improvement. The gap has narrowed and it would bridge further,” Bahuguna said. He explained that June brings only 17% of seasonal showers, and a 30% departure from the long-period average for the month doesn’t jeopardise farm prospects, although the ministry is maintaining a close vigil on the situation.

Monsoon showers have narrowed to a deficit of 23% of the long average rainfall now from 30% a week earlier, according to the Indian Meterological Office (IMD). The El Nino weather pattern, which causes drought, is unlikely to impact India’s monsoon rains, the IMD said on Wednesday, providing some relief to policy makers and analysts, who were apprehending a revisit of the phenomenon after 2009.

The government is confident that the target of 245 million tonne grain output for 2012-13 will be achieved, despite a 4-day delay in the onset over the Kerala coast from the scheduled time of June 1 and initial problems in the progress of monsoon, Bahuguna said. However, the government may trim coarse cereal output target if key producing regions of Maharashtra and Karnataka continue to receive poor rains until July 15, he added. Maharashtra had received around 36% less than the long-term average rainfall until July 4 and parts of Karnataka witnessed a 43% fall during the period.

According to official data, paddy was sown on 5.54 million hectares until July 6, around 26% less than a year before, while oilseeds planting went up by nearly 29% to 2.65 million hectares.

Area under cereals slumped by more than a half to 2.19 million hectares. However, pulses planting has gone up by 5.3% to 1.3 million hectares. Bahuguna said sowing activities are picking up with the improvement in rainfall, and the shortfall in acreage will likely narrow in the coming days.

Rainfall in the June-September monsoon season will likely be 96% of the 50-year average of 89 centimeters, the IMD said last month, revising down its April predictions of 99% rainfall. IMD defines normal monsoon rains as 96% to 104% of the long-period average (LPA), which refers to the average showers received between 1951 and 2000.

According to a Citi group report, sub-par monsoons could shave 50-80 basis points off growth to 5.6-6% in the 2012-13 fiscal. Although the exact impact on price rise is difficult to quantify, poor monsoon would hit inflation more significantly than growth, it added. It has estimated inflation for 2012-13 at 7.5%.

Stakes on monsoon are high as a failure could drive up prices of cereals and edible oils, as more than 60% of the country’s farmland is rain-fed. The June-September monsoon season brings about 73% of annual rains and is crucial for summer-sown crops, and also boosts ground water reserves for winter planting.

While the country is largely self-sufficient in cereal output, it imports more than half of its edible oil requirements annually.