The Sri Lankan Department of Meteorology has said that South-West monsoon conditions are likely to be established over the country during the next few days, especially from May 25, which is the normal date of onset of rains for the country.
The island nation is the penultimate port of call before the monsoon races into the neighbouring South-East Arabian Sea and hits the Kerala coast, the first point of impact over mainland India.
Strengthening flows The south-western parts of Sri Lanka have been warned of showery and windy conditions over the next few days.
In fact, high winds speeding up to 65 km/hr and rough seas are being forecast over some areas in the south.
The strengthening monsoon flows have touched off activity in the adjoining Equatorial Indian Ocean and South-East Bay of Bengal, where an upper air cyclonic circulation was spotted on Monday.
This had been correctly forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) only the previous day, saying that the circulation would make conditions favourable for the monsoon to entrench further in the Bay of Bengal.
It will be put under constant watch for signs of further evolution, possibilities for which cannot be ruled out, going by the IMD’s wind field projections.
But the Department has refrained from saying so in as many words in its evening bulletin.
Onset over Kerala The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has not predicted a major weather system (monsoon depression/cyclone) except to say that the circulation would significantly ramp up monsoon flows.
The European agency indicated that copybook-style monsoon conditions would have been established over the Kerala coast by May 30, which is the date for onset already announced by the IMD.
By this time the stubborn high-pressure region in the Arabian Sea, which has been blocking the monsoon flow for sometime now after it hit the Andaman & Nicobar Islands ahead of time, would have broken down.
An existing upper air cyclonic circulation in the South-West Arabian Sea (far from the Kerala coast), briefly manifesting itself as an elongated trough with westerly-to-south-westerlies along its flanks, will hasten this process.