India’s monsoon is likely to have average rainfall in 2012, despite fears of the El Nino weather pattern emerging in the second half of the season, the India Meteorological Department (IMD), pointing to a third straight year without drought.
The June-September monsoon, vital for agricultural output and economic growth, irrigates around 60 per cent of farms in India, the world's second-biggest producer of rice, wheat, sugar and cotton. Agriculture accounts for about 15 per cent of India's nearly $2-trillion economy, Asia's third biggest.
“Rain could be normal this year, due to the absence of any strong signal that could inhibit occurrence of a healthy monsoon,” L S Rathore, director-general of the state-run IMD, told Reuters in an interview.
The IMD forecast is the basis for the government's official forecast which will be released in the last week of April with more details.
According to the IMD classification, rain between 96-104 per cent of a 50-year average of 89 centimetres is considered normal. The last time there was a drought with rains below this range was 2009 and before that, in 2004.
“The apprehension that the El Nino will impact the monsoon badly seems misplaced as this weather pattern is likely to emerge only towards end-August which is one of the two wettest months. Besides, El Nino is just one of the many factors that come into play,” Rathore said.
El Nino, an abnormal warming of waters in the equatorial tropical Pacific, is linked with poor rains or a drought-like situation in southeast Asia and Australia.
The La Nina weather pattern, which is associated with heavy rain in south Asia and flooding in the Asia-Pacific region and South America, and drought in Africa, ended in March.
In the interim before El Nino appears, Rathore said a neutral condition continues over the tropical Pacific.
“On a number of occasions, monsoon turned out to be normal despite the emergence of El Nino. There is no direct, one-on- one relationship between the success of the monsoon and the occurrence of El Nino,” he said.
Last month, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said climate models indicated that the La Nina weather pattern had come to an end. In 2009, the El Nino weather pattern turned monsoon rains patchy, leading to the worst drought in nearly four decades. Rains were within long-term averages in following years, helped by La Nina.
According to the weather office, the El Nino weather pattern was present in 13 of the 20 drought years in the past 111 years. “Although I cannot talk about this year's monsoon forecast now, as it due between April 25 and April 28, what I can say is there is no cause for concern at all,” Rathore said.