ISMA procured the satellite images of cane area in the last week of Jan’ 2020. The satellite pictures have given a good idea of area already harvested and remaining unharvested area in the fields across the country, almost half way through the season.

These images of harvested and balance area, trend of yields and sugar recoveries achieved till now, as also expected yield/sugar recovery in the balance period of the sugar season were all discussed in the meeting of ISMA on 25th Feb, 2020, where representatives of sugar mills from each sugar producing State were present.

There was an agreement that sugar production during 2019-20 SS would be slightly more than what was estimated by ISMA in November 2019. ISMA has accordingly revised its sugar production estimates upwards from 26 million tons to 26.5 million tons during 2019-20 SS. This is after considering reduction of sugar due to more production of ethanol by way of diversion of B heavy molasses and sugarcane juice.

Mills in U.P. are expected to produce a total of about 118 lac tons in 2019-20 SS, which is almost similar to what the State had produced in 2018-19 SS.

Maharashtra is expected to produce about 62 lac tons in 2019-20 SS, as against 107.20 lac tons produced in 2018-19 SS. Based on our analysis, we expect higher yield from the balance sugarcane available for harvesting which is mainly in areas which are high yielding districts like Kolhapur, Satara, Sangli and Pune.

The 3rd major sugar producing State viz. Karnataka is expected to produce about 33 lac tons of sugar in 2019-20 SS, against 44.30 lac tons produced in 2018-19 SS. Based on our analysis, we expect good yield for the balance cane yet to be harvested.

There has not been any major changes in the other sugarcane growing States of the country. As per the second advance estimates, the other States viz. Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh & Telangana, Bihar, Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh & Chattisgarh, Odisha and Uttarakhand are collectively expected to produce about 52 lac tons, which is almost similar to what was estimated by ISMA in its first advance estimates in Nov’ 2019.

As per LOI for Ethanol supply in 2019-20 SS, contracts for supply of ethanol during 2019-20 SS made from B heavy molasses and sugarcane juice, is 61.63 Cr. ltr and 10.60 Cr. ltrs, respectively. Another tender is under finalization and is expected that some more ethanol supplies would be contracted, including ethanol from B heavy molasses and sugarcane juice.

With an opening stock of 14.5 mn tons on 1st October 2019, domestic consumption of 26 mn tons, sugar exports of over 5 mn tons and the estimated production of 26.5 mn tons, the closing stocks as on 30th September, 2020 is expected to be lower at around 10 mn tons.

If the Government continues with its buffer stocks of 4 mn tons in next year too, the net available sugar balance for market sale will be around 6 mn tons, which is considered reasonable.