The response of ISMA is given below-
31st July 2017
To
Mr. S.P. Tulsian
Sir, In an article written by you, which has appeared in “money control.com” on 30th July 2017, with the heading “Why India’s sugar production in 2017-18 will leave a bitter taste in the mouth”, it seems that you are trying to assign motives behind the estimates and figures given by ISMA. You have written that ISMA is trying to tone down the “scenario of sugar shortage and the precarious situation on ground” to avoid the Government’s “wrath” by showing that India has sufficient sugar.
2. For reasons best known to you, you seem to only refer to the figures given out by ISMA and have not mentioned or referred to the figures of Government of India. The opening stock as on 1st October 2016 of 77 lac tons has been reduced by you in your article to 65 lac tons i.e. by as high as 12 lac tons, which works out to almost 16%, without assigning any reason whatsoever. Government of India about 5 days back, in an answer to a Parliament Question in Lok Sabha, has reported that the opening stock as on 1st October 2016 is 77 lac tons. Government has been giving this figure from the beginning of the current season.
3. The opening stocks as on 1st October of any year is calculated on the basis of the reports given by individual sugar mills to the Government of India, duly certified by the Excise Department. Therefore, there should not be any reason to disbelieve the Government’s figures which has been calculated as per the reports of the individual sugar mills duly certified by Excise Department. Please note that the source of ISMA’s figure is also the same.
4. In your article, you have only referred to the production estimates of ISMA. I hope you have also been considering the Government’s estimates or the estimates of trading houses etc. Again, in the same reply to the Parliament Question in Lok Sabha, the Government has stated that their initial sugar production estimates for 2016-17 SS was at about 225 lac tons, they later revised to 203 lac tons due to unanticipated reduction in cane availability in Maharashtra and Karnataka.
5. Accordingly, if you consider the Government’s estimates of the opening stocks of 77 lac tons, estimated sugar production of 203 lac tons and imports of 5 lac tons, the total availability during 2016-17 SS will be 285 lac tons, and not 271 lac tons as written in your article. The Government has in their reply to their Parliament Question also mentioned that the revised estimated consumption during 2016-17 SS will be 244 lac tons,. Considering this, the closing balance will be 41 lac tons and not 23 lac tons as shown by you. I hope you would appreciate that the Government is submitting these details and figures before the Parliament and, therefore, there is no reason for you and us to disbelieve or question these numbers at this stage, unless you have any reason to do so or alternate source of more authentic information. You have not mentioned the source of data/information in your article, but have simply given the figures, which only you can justify.
6. Referring to a media report, you have even mentioned that the inventory as on 1st July 2017 was 69 lac tons of sugar. Again, you need to know that all sugar mills submit their monthly report to the Government, which they would have done till end of June’17. On the basis of the reports already received, the inventory as on 1st July 2017, is around 96 lac tons, and not 69 lac tons as stated in your article.
7. Considering the opening balance of 41 lac tons for 2017-18 SS and expectation that the next year’s production and consumption would be matching each other, the closing balance at the end of 2017-18 SS should be around 41 lac tons or so.
8. I hope you will appreciate the above explanation and information as well as note that these figures, including that the opening stock as on 1st October 2016 of 77 lac tons is a figure of the Government of India, which is being reported by everybody, including ISMA. We will also appreciate if you issue a rejoinder or a correction to your article if you agree with the above. If you do not agree, we would also appreciate your advice as to why you do not agree, so that if required we will take corrective action accordingly. Thanking you, Yours faithfully, (KASI VISWANATHAN) Deputy Head (Policy – Sugar & Statistics)