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The International Sugar Organisation (ISO) has estimated a
higher global sugar surplus of 11.1 million tonnes for the year
2007-08.
The ISO had in May, 2007 pegged the surplus at around 9.1 million tonnes. In its quarterly report released in
November 2007, the ISO said global sugar output is estimated at
170.308 million tonnes against a consumption demand of 159.169 million
tonnes. World consumption
is projected to grow by 2.4%, only a fraction down from the
10-year average of 2.3%.
For 2007/08, world export availability is projected to exceed import
demand by more than 4.272 million tonnes,
the organization said.
|
World
Sugar Balance |
|
(mln
tonne, raw value) |
2007/08 |
2006/07 |
Change |
| |
|
|
in
mln t |
in
% |
| Production |
170.308 |
166.030 |
4.278 |
2.58 |
| Consumption |
159.169 |
154.985 |
4.184 |
2.70 |
| Surplus
/ Deficit |
11.139 |
11.045 |
|
|
| Import
demand |
45.496 |
46.070 |
-0.574 |
-1.25 |
| Export
availability |
49.768 |
46.077 |
3.691 |
8.01 |
| End
Stocks |
74.716 |
67.849 |
6.867 |
10.12 |
| Stocks/Consumption
ratio in% |
46.94 |
43.78 |
|
|
|
Source:
ISO
quarterly market outlook, Nov 2007 |
SUGAR ABROAD
BRAZIL
Brazilian
output of sugar-cane used to make sweeteners and ethanol will
rise as much as 22% from last year's record because of increased
planting and as rains and new technologies boost crop yields.
Brazilian sugar and ethanol mills will crush 558 million to 580
million tonnes of cane this year, up from 475 million tonnes
last year. Total output, including cane used for alcoholic
beverages and animal feed, will rise to between 608 million and
632 million tonnes, compared with 550 million tonnes last year.
Sugar production by Brazilian mills will rise as much as 12% to
between 34 million and 35 million tonnes, up from 31.3 million
tonnes last year. Ethanol output will reach 26.5 billion to 27.5
billion liters (7 billion to 7.3 billion gallons), up from 23
billion liters last year.
EU
On
the market access front, the sugar import regime is to be
relaxed, with quota and duty free access from the world’s
poorest countries under the Everything but Arms (EBA) concession
from 2009. The least developed countries with reasonable supply
potential are Malawi, Zambia, and possibly Zimbabwe and Sudan.
Their future depends upon their ability to increase production
and exports under the new EBA regime. The “wild card” was
the offer by the EU to the African, Caribbean and Pacific
countries negotiating a package of Economic Partnership
Agreements for quota and tariff free access to the EU. The offer
covers all products, including agricultural goods (except rice
and sugar), and applies immediately following the signing. It
appears that rice and sugar will be fully liberalised in 2015.
MEXICO
In
Mexico, the 2006/07 sugar campaign ended with total production
reaching 5.314 mln tonnes, (raw value), up by 0.7% from 5.279
mln tonnes produced in the previous season. Assuming normal
weather conditions during the coming year, with return to
average yields as well as taking into account slightly increased
planted areas, the ISO maintains its initial forecast for the
new season’s production at 5.7 mln tonnes, raw value.
AUSTRALIA
Sugar
cane area in Australia, the world's third-largest sugar
exporter, may increase by 1.8% in the year starting September,
remaining below the 10- year average. Cane area is forecast to
rise by 7,000 hectares from a year earlier to 395,000 hectares.
Production may increase by 1 million tonnes, or 2.8%, to 37
million tonnes. Australia's sugar cane yield in 2008-09 is
expected to be above average at just over 93 tonnes per hectare,
the USDA said in a report released on April 8. Australian sugar
exports for 2008-09 are forecast at 3.9 million tonnes, compared
with 3.8 million tonnes estimated for the previous year.
Australia exports roughly 75% of its sugar production. Output
may be 5 million tonnes in 2008-09, up from 4.9 million tonnes
the previous year, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and
Resource Economics said.
PAKISTAN
In
Pakistan, sugar production is expected to improve in 2007-08.
Sugarcane production is estimated at 60 million tonnes compared
with 54 million tonnes harvest during 2006-07 and 44 million
tonnes in 2005-06. Pakistan sugar output is estimated at 4.35
million tonnes (raw value) in 2007-08, up 12% from the previous
year. Meanwhile, the sugar advisory board has recommended to the
new government to direct the Trading Corporation of Pakistan to
buy 500,000 tonnes of sugar from mills to enable them to pay
huge dues to growers estimated at Rs 2,000 million.
EGYPT
The
Saudi Savola Group plans to increase its annual sugar refining
capacity in Egypt by more than half to 1.15 million tonnes
within two years to fill a gap in local production. Savola plans
to build a 200000 tonnes per year sugar refinery in Egypt that
will process only sugar beets, at a total cost of about $150
million. It also plans to raise to 950000 tonnes per year from
750000 the annual production capacity of its sugar refinery
located in the Egyptian town of Ain Sokhna.
FIJI
The
sugar industry is expected to earn $209 million from sugar
produced over the new season due to increased quota requirements
from the European Union. Fiji Sugar Corporation said the
increased quota requirements means Fiji would export 229,000
tonnes of sugar. This represented an increase of 30,000 tonnes.
As a result, Fiji would not export sugar to the United States
and Japan. The increase in exports to EU would be of huge
benefit because all sugar would be exported under preferential
sugar prices. The first few exports would be sold at $980 per
tonne while exports at the end of the year and beginning of next
year would be sold at $872 per tonne. For the purpose, Fiji is
going to import 45,000 tonnes of sugar. Last year, the industry
was forced to import 20,000 tonnes from India to make up for the
shortfall in production.
SRI
LANKA
The
Government is aiming to achieve a 50% self sufficiency in
sugar-cane production by 2012. The Government with a view to
promoting this sector has decided to employ 4,500 persons
through Ampara Hingurana sugar-cane plantation and Kantale
sugar-cane cultivation, the two seed cane nurseries, which were
established in Trincomalee and Ampara in 2007. Several
rehabilitation programmes have been launched by the government
in Ampara and Trincomalee districts.
INDONESIA
Sugar
refiners in Indonesia, Asia's biggest importer of sugar, may buy
19% more raw sugar this year as demand increases. Indonesian
refiners may buy 1.9 million tonnes of raw sugar to make 1.8
million tonnes of refined sugar this year, more than 1.6 million
tonnes bought last year for 1.44 million tonnes. Indonesia's
white sugar output, processed from canes harvested by the
country's growers, may rise to 2.7 million tonnes in 2008 from
2.4 million tonnes last year. Output from farms is used for
domestic household consumption, estimated at 2.7 million tonnes
annually. Industrial users must import refined sugar or buy from
local processors of raw sugar purchased overseas. Consumption by
all types of users may increase to 4.85 million tonnes this
year. Food makers may directly import 350,000 tonnes of refined
sugar this year.
(Source:
ISO Reports)
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